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Sanctions on Iran: How quickly will output fall?
Sep 17:
As we move closer to the November 5th re-imposition of sanctions against Iran, the impact is starting to become more noticeable for the tanker market.
8The IEA reported this week that Iranian crude production had fallen by 150,000 b/d to 3.63 million b/d in August, the lowest since July 2016.
8Ship tracking data suggests that exports have fallen further, by 400,000-500,000 b/d to around 2.4 million b/d.
8So, the question really is, by how much and how quickly will Iranian production fall and who is going to replace those lost barrels?
8Quite simply, if the lost Iranian barrels are compensated by supplies from elsewhere, there will be more demand for the international tanker fleet, as the Iranian fleet will not be able to compete for these cargoes. Click on Report for more.
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8The IEA reported this week that Iranian crude production had fallen by 150,000 b/d to 3.63 million b/d in August, the lowest since July 2016.
8Ship tracking data suggests that exports have fallen further, by 400,000-500,000 b/d to around 2.4 million b/d.
8So, the question really is, by how much and how quickly will Iranian production fall and who is going to replace those lost barrels?
8Quite simply, if the lost Iranian barrels are compensated by supplies from elsewhere, there will be more demand for the international tanker fleet, as the Iranian fleet will not be able to compete for these cargoes. Click on Report for more.
