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The argument against use of gas: Perspective needed
Jul 11:
After President Trump's ascent to power, the climate-change lobby is on the back foot but nevertheless, supported by an increasingly assertive renewable energy industry, there is still a lot of research being thrown up against the oil & gas industry.
8There is now a cogently argued assertion that gas cannot be considered as a "transition fuel" any more if Paris targets are to be met. Their arguments are :
-- There is no room for gas if decarbonization targets are to be met
-- New gas is holding up the growth of the renewable and not the coal industry
-- Gas is not needed for a transition to a cleaner world
-- New gas infrastructure is only locking in investments
-- There is too much gas already even to replace coal and no new gas fields must be developed
Comment: This is clearly a doomsday scenario painted by the climate-change adherents but oil & gas policy makers must read the main arguments -- for some of them make for logical reading -- to keep their perspective right. In the throes of high GDP growth and rapid expansion, it is always necessary not to lose track of what is beyond the horizon as of now. The future can be with us sooner than we anticipate. There is no going away from the fact that while the cost of fossil gas remains at near historic lows today, the finite nature of fossil fuels signals that it is unlikely to get cheaper, in fact, quite the opposite. But for solar and onshore wind, cost reductions of 62 percent and 48 percent respectively are projected by 2040. Solar and onshore wind will become “the cheapest bulk generation almost everywhere by 2023.”. What is more, India today has the lowest solar and wind energy cost in the world.
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8There is now a cogently argued assertion that gas cannot be considered as a "transition fuel" any more if Paris targets are to be met. Their arguments are :
-- There is no room for gas if decarbonization targets are to be met
-- New gas is holding up the growth of the renewable and not the coal industry
-- Gas is not needed for a transition to a cleaner world
-- New gas infrastructure is only locking in investments
-- There is too much gas already even to replace coal and no new gas fields must be developed
Comment: This is clearly a doomsday scenario painted by the climate-change adherents but oil & gas policy makers must read the main arguments -- for some of them make for logical reading -- to keep their perspective right. In the throes of high GDP growth and rapid expansion, it is always necessary not to lose track of what is beyond the horizon as of now. The future can be with us sooner than we anticipate. There is no going away from the fact that while the cost of fossil gas remains at near historic lows today, the finite nature of fossil fuels signals that it is unlikely to get cheaper, in fact, quite the opposite. But for solar and onshore wind, cost reductions of 62 percent and 48 percent respectively are projected by 2040. Solar and onshore wind will become “the cheapest bulk generation almost everywhere by 2023.”. What is more, India today has the lowest solar and wind energy cost in the world.
