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Climate change and oil use-II: Oil & gas fields will continue to be worked through the 21st century, says one line of argument
Jun 18:
The sunk cost of existing oil & gas infrastructure and high social discount in developing countries will mean that oil & gas will continue to play a preeminent role in all of the 21st century, according to this line of thinking.
8In developing countries, the social rate of discount can be as high as 30%, and then any adverse cost that happens 30 years from now is almost of no value today.
8The advent of electric vehicles will unlikely to dent the demand for oil beyond a point, unless there is a dramatic tipping point in the offtake of EVs, which is unlikely in the foreseeable future
8The Middle East will not give up on its cheap oil reserves and continue to pump them out to fire thousands of desalinization plants to make the deserts green. Or they will flood the globe with cheap petrochemicals.
8These and other arguments are advanced to predict that oil & gas fields will continue to be worked vigorously until the end of the current century.
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8In developing countries, the social rate of discount can be as high as 30%, and then any adverse cost that happens 30 years from now is almost of no value today.
8The advent of electric vehicles will unlikely to dent the demand for oil beyond a point, unless there is a dramatic tipping point in the offtake of EVs, which is unlikely in the foreseeable future
8The Middle East will not give up on its cheap oil reserves and continue to pump them out to fire thousands of desalinization plants to make the deserts green. Or they will flood the globe with cheap petrochemicals.
8These and other arguments are advanced to predict that oil & gas fields will continue to be worked vigorously until the end of the current century.
Click on Reports for more
