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Crude peak in mid 2020s: But oil and gas investments will still be needed
Apr 13: Despite the enthusiastic growth in demand for crude oil, sober projections made by international majors -- around which they base their medium and long term planning -- continue to be based on the assumption that demand growth will settle down 1% per year from 2020-25.
8Demand will peak around the middle of the decade and then falls by about 1% per year until about 2040.
8In 2050, demand for oil is 78 million barrels a day (mb/d) – about 85% of today’s oil production.
8The point to note is that even in 2070, oil use remains around 50-60 mb/d, because of the continued need for oil in heavy transport, as well as chemical manufacturing.
8In these circumstances, gas demand in rises 2% per year between 2020-2025 and by 1.5% between 2025-2030. It peaks around the middle of the 2030s and falls by 0.5% per year
 for the rest of the decade.
8However, even in this scenario, E&P investments will be essential  as without it, the natural production decline rate would be about 7% per year. Over a period of five years, that would translate into about 30 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboe/d) of lost production from the current level of around 95 mmboe/day.
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