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What the future has in store-II: Uncertainty prevails
Feb 21: The latest global projections show crude oil demand slowing down but will be above current levels until 2040
8Gas demand however moves up but there are different scenarios about how gas will fare in an increasingly changing world
8Coal demand falls everywhere but in India and in some parts of the developing world
8And even if electric vehicles replace conventional cars, oil demand will not come down below 2016 levels, as other segments such as petrochemicals, will continue to use more crude.
8But the point to note is that all of this will mean carbon emissions will continue to rise well beyond what is needed to keep temperatures down to two degree centigrade.
8So if the world were to take action along the lines of the Paris deal, then the arithmetic changes
8Higher carbon taxes, more upfront governmental action, and market share seeking production by OPEC will impact the sector in a different way from how it is projected now.
8Then again, the role of disruptive technology is not factored in fully in these 2040 projections. What happens, for example, if very disruptive technology makes electrolysis from extremely cheap renewable power make petrochemical cheaper to make through this route than using crude oil or gas?
8So while the mood is bullish for now and for the coming few years, this is not the time to be complacent.
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