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Counterview-I: The EV revolution is still some time away
Feb 20: This website carries here a series of reports highlighting the view that the electric vehicle (EV) revolution is still some distance away from eating into the sales of oil marketing companies. This line of argument claims that demand for fossil fuel for the transportation sector will continue to grow for the next 10 years. A business case is therefore sought to be made out for a massive expansion of refining capacity.
The following new facts seem to be emerging of late on EVs:
8It’s easy to get carried away with the hype surrounding EVs. Sales of battery-powered cars may be surging, but the technology is still in its infancy and batteries are by no means the only low-carbon solution for global mobility.
8Oil production will have to increase in order to meet rising demand from road transport for years to come. EVs are likely to remain a small part of the overall global vehicle fleet unless the technology improves significantly and the cost of production falls.
8The growth of EVs is dependent on subsidies and policies designed to push consumers into battery-powered transport, especially in urban areas. How the market for this emerging form of passenger transport will hold up once these incentives are removed is uncertain.
8EVs are also not the only solution for future mobility. Autonomous vehicles could transform the traditional model of car ownership leading to fewer cars on the road, while hydrogen may eventually provide another alternative fuel, especially for larger commercial vehicles.
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