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Where are oil prices going?
Feb 14:
The world's best known forecasting agency has projected the following oil prices:
-- The baseline forecast projects an increase in the oil price to just below $70/b in April, before falling to the low $60/b in June.
-- The price recovers in the third quarter of the year near $65/b, falling again marginally to around $62/b by the end of the year.
8The baseline forecast projects an average real price of oil of around $65/b for 2018, an increase of more than $10/b from 2017.
8These results suggest that the momentum of stronger than expected oil demand and the OPEC output cuts in 2017 have tightened the oil market insofar as even with no change in current market dynamics, the oil price will continue to be supported at around $65/b in the year to come.
Click on Reports to get the full theoretical underpinning of the above forecast and how endogenous factors play a bigger role than exogenous forces.
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-- The baseline forecast projects an increase in the oil price to just below $70/b in April, before falling to the low $60/b in June.
-- The price recovers in the third quarter of the year near $65/b, falling again marginally to around $62/b by the end of the year.
8The baseline forecast projects an average real price of oil of around $65/b for 2018, an increase of more than $10/b from 2017.
8These results suggest that the momentum of stronger than expected oil demand and the OPEC output cuts in 2017 have tightened the oil market insofar as even with no change in current market dynamics, the oil price will continue to be supported at around $65/b in the year to come.
Click on Reports to get the full theoretical underpinning of the above forecast and how endogenous factors play a bigger role than exogenous forces.
