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Do not count on peak demand for oil anytime soon-I: Demand will continue to rise till 2040, says forecast
Jan 24: Demand for oil is not peaking anytime soon as was projected by many studies, according to fresh studies, that take into account the buoyant state of the world economy and rising oil prices.
8In the medium-term period 2016–2022, oil demand shows is anticipated to go up to 6.9 mb/d, rising from 95.4 mb/d to 102.3 mb/d. This corresponds to an average annual increase
of close to 1.2 mb/d.
8The outlook for long-term oil demand growth is around 111.1 mb/d by 2040, although average growth slows to around 300,000 b/d between 2035 and 2040 on the back of anticipated efficiency improvements, a further tightening of energy policies, as well as decelerating GDP and population growth.
8On the supply side, total non-OPEC liquids in the medium-term are estimated to grow by 5 mb/d, from 57 mb/d in 2016 to 62 mb/d in 2022. Of this growth, 3.8 mb/d is incremental supply from the US alone. After 2022, non-OPEC growth begins to slow, peaking in 2027 at 63.8 mb/d, before declining to 60.4 mb/d by 2040.
8Thus, the long-term focus for additional liquids demand remains on OPEC, from low cost producers.
8It is estimated that OPEC will need to supply an additional 7.7 mb/d in the period 2020-2040. This will mean that the share of OPEC crude in global oil supply is expected to increase from 34% in 2016 to 37% in 2040.
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