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The future is here-VII: OMCs haven't learnt to change
Jun 21: India is planning massive refinery capacity increases just at a time when demand for light vehicle liquid fuels are projected to fall from 2020 onwards
8Two factors impact the demand: technological disruptions and mobility advances (please see data carried here)
8It will be interesting to find out when the feasibility studies are done by IHS, a research firm hired by the oil marketing companies who are building the refinery, on what exactly are the parameters taken by the agency to arrive at India's demand estimates for liquid fuels.
8The cost economics of such massive investments are justified on the petrochemical side as demand is going to grow in the years ahead but on the liquid fuel segment, a 10 year perspective will show different outcomes, depending upon the assumptions used.
8It is harder than ever to predict the future. Big investments in assets that must be productive for three decades or more become far too risky.
8No other bunch of companies in India are faced with a transitional problem as grave as India's oil marketing companies.
8As of now, they are following the time tested Business as Usual route but it won't be long before they are forced to change track.
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