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What the future holds in store-I: Oil prices to spike post 2020
Mar 15: For policy planners in Indian companies, crystal gazing into the future has become a serious art. The oil and gas business is no longer a predictable one and having all the facts about what the future has in store has become imperative for large companies to sail successfully in stormy waters.
8A highly credible medium term analysis now claims global oil demand growth is forecast to average about 1.2 million barrels per year, which equates to a net 7.3 million barrels per day of gain between 2016 and 2022.
8And global oil demand will cross the 100 million barrels per day line in 2019, with China and India contributing nearly half, 46 percent of the growth.
8Another important finding is that demand is unlikely to peak anytime soon. The peak demand timeline has been shifted out to an indeterminate time in the future.
8In this context, unless additional E&P projects are going to be sanctioned soon, global oil production will grow by 3.6 million barrels per day from 2016 to 2022.
8Within this supply growth, OPEC capacity growth will be something like 2 million barrels per day.
8It is projected that spare production capacity, in terms of the percentage of the global demand, will fall to less than 2 percent in 2022, and that’s a lot lower than the most recent low of 3.7 percent in 2008, when the world saw the WTI hit $147 per barrel.
8So while prices are expected to remain range bound up to 2020, they may flare up afterwards.
8The point to note is that global oil & gas spending levels remain currently at worrying low levels. And of course it’s not too late to avert the supply crunch, provided the companies start to sanction development work without delay.
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