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LNG markets are at the crossroads-II: A lot of capacity coming up in 2017
Mar 14: The cumulative effect of steadily rising production is likely to be felt in the second half of 2017, especially in the middle of the year, when demand tends to be lower in the dominant markets of the northern hemisphere.
8Provided that new liquefaction capacity projects scheduled for start-up this year go according to plan, Q3 2017 could see total production at 73.8 mt, up 8.7 mt from 65.1 mt in Q3 2016.
8New liquefaction projects scheduled for start-up in Q3 2017 include the 4.45 mtpa Wheatstone Train 1 and Ichthys Train 1 in Australia and the 4.5 mtpa Sabine Pass Train 4 in the US.
8In Q4 2017, start-up is scheduled at Australia’s 3.6 mtpa Prelude, the 5.3 mtpa Cove Point project in the US and Cameroon’s 1.2 mtpa Kribi Floating LNG
8However, reports in recent weeks have indicated that start-up for some of these projects – Gorgon Train 3, Wheatstone, Ichthys and Prelude – may slip into 2018. Even in the event that they do – and at the moment there is only press speculation – their combined contribution to 2017’s production forecast is, at 3.4 mt, a relatively small fraction of this year’s anticipated new production.
8Assuming that start-ups in these Australian projects go as planned, Gas Strategies expects 76.7 mt of total production in Q4 2017, bringing the H2 2017 total to 150.4 mt, up 18.7 mt from the second half of the year in 2016. As a result, total LNG production, including ramp-ups, could stand at 292.3 mt in 2017, compared with 258 mt in 2016. If the Australian projects do slip to 2018, H2 2017 production is forecast at 147 mt and 2017 overall at 288.6 mt.
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