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15 year projection-II: Offshore domestic output will have to retain viability at low prices
Jan 31:
Oil and gas producers in India, particularly in the expensive HPHT high-reserve technologically challenging KG Basin fields, will have to take cognizance of the 15-year gas price projections while working out their cost economics.
8The base case scenario will have to take into account a US gas price of less than $ 4/mmbtu up to year 2030. To this, the gasification, shipping and regasification cost to India will have to be included. Depending upon how disruptive technology works, gas prices may tend to be below rather than above the $ 4/mmbtu benchmark price.
8For crude prices, all sensitivity analysis will have to be done at the sub-$60/bbl level. Given abundant low cost reserves of oil and competition for market share, as predicted by several research agencies, prices may stay low well into the foreseeable future, with prices diving dangerously low if competition for market share becomes intense.
8Any analysis that throws up a negative NPV at these prices will have to be adandoned
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8The base case scenario will have to take into account a US gas price of less than $ 4/mmbtu up to year 2030. To this, the gasification, shipping and regasification cost to India will have to be included. Depending upon how disruptive technology works, gas prices may tend to be below rather than above the $ 4/mmbtu benchmark price.
8For crude prices, all sensitivity analysis will have to be done at the sub-$60/bbl level. Given abundant low cost reserves of oil and competition for market share, as predicted by several research agencies, prices may stay low well into the foreseeable future, with prices diving dangerously low if competition for market share becomes intense.
8Any analysis that throws up a negative NPV at these prices will have to be adandoned
Click on Reports for more
