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BP's new projections show emissions won't go down in 20 years-I: Temperatures can go well above the 2% limit
Jan 30: The new BP 20-year outlook on global energy demand has painted a doomsday scenario where the base case sees carbon emissions growing by about 13% because of increase demand in fossil fuels by 2035.
8This is far in excess of, for example, the IEA’s 450 Scenario which suggests carbon emissions need to fall by around 30% by 2035 to have a good chance of achieving the goals set out in Paris.
8The outlook says that carbon emissions are projected to grow at less than a third of the rate seen in the past 20 years: 0.6% p.a. versus 2.1% p.a and would be the slowest rate of emissions growth for any 20 year period since our records began in 1965.
8But clearly this slowdown will just not be enough to keep the world temperature from growing by 2% by the turn of this century.
8This base case scenario envisages temperature growth to go up by much more than the benchmark limit.
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