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Will gas-based power be viable ever-II: Big Oil, Big Research, Big Government call the shots
Oct 12: In the last season, projections were that the LNG over supply situation will continue till 2025
8This season, the projections are that demand will match supply by 2021-22.
8Such a development can be nothing but bad news for the gas-based power sector. If LNG prices move up, the price of LNG dependent gas based power will go even higher in the merit order power market in India, making it that much more difficult to get the current stranded capacity restarted. The fact that coal based power plants can be retrofitted to act as low base load and peaking stations is a detriment already but higher price of gas will kill the hope for a revival of stranded gas based power projects in the country.
8The shifts in projections are triggered through a subtle release of data led by the biggest LNG suppliers in the world, and among them are Shell, Exxon-Mobil, BP and Total.
8Research agencies crunch the fresh data and then help bring about a change in sentiment.
8BP, for example, has an inordinate amount of clout with Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), one of the world's best recognized research outfits in the oil & gas sector, based out of Oxford, not far from BP's headquarters. CERA works with IHS, the world's largest consulting company, and the two together form a formidable "intellectual force" and a dissemination point that triggers off a chain of supporting reports which eventually impacts sentiments, policies and prices.
8Some years ago, CERA was funded by BP to bring out a report on the Indian oil & gas sector wherein it drew up a road map of how big investments can make India nearly self sufficient in gas. The story, however, turned out to be different. While investments are pumped into the KG Basin, there aren't enough reserves, unlike what CERA had projected, to absorb funds beyond a point. 
8The usual modus operandi of Big Research is to push a lot of information upfront to dazzle the audience. No one does the assessment of all they said a year later when the ground reality is different.  For then it is time for another set of new data points to emerge. The razzle-dazzle continues in what is a seemingly unending cycle.
8Big bang events like the one hosted in India by CERA this week is nothing but a lot of razzmatazz put together by Big Oil, Big Research and Big Government.
8The oil and gas sector is, sometimes, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
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