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Confusion over India's demand for gas-III: Range of factors needs to be taken into account
Jun 28: Given India's complex maze of regulations, prices and contrasting supply and demand dynamics, it is near-impossible to discern how gas demand is going to behave going ahead.
8Current official and multilateral estimates of demand show wide variations.
8The PNGRB for example had projected a widely optimistic gas demand scenario, which is way above what the ground situation is. Other official estimates -- such as the 12th Plan Report -- are also way off the mark.
8The very fact that there is no attempt by the government to make realistic estimates of gas demand or even supply is indicative of an institutional lack of depth.
In this context, the website carries here a new assessment of gas demand taking into considerations a range of factors, including:
8International benchmark prices and Indian gas prices and imports (1997-2016)
8Sector-wise and company-wise gas production in India (2006-2016)
8Production, consumption and LNG imports (2005-2016)
8Sector-wise consumption of gas (last six months)
8Demand supply projections on gas made by various agencies so far
8Production, imports and projected demand for fertilizers
8Fertilizer subsidy and retail prices: falling subsidies on imported urea
8Gas based power capacity & gas supply to power sector
8Competitiveness of gas with coal in power generation: Average power tariff in India in relation to the tariffs for coal based power in relation to the delivered cost of power produced from gas -- divided in to fixed and variable costs -- under different gas price scenarios
8Competitiveness of CNG and PNG under different gas prices in relation to diesel and subsided and nonsubsided LPG, with and without tax components
8Forecast and actual consumption of gas in the CGD sector: there are wide variations
8Industry-wise gas consumption over the last five years: will the Make in India programme make a sizeable difference to gas demand in India
8Changes in gas consumption sector-wise to changes in LNG prices
8Renewable sector demand and supply under different realistic scenarios
8Weighted average specific emissions from power plants as against new emission norms set by the government
8Coal required under different renewable targets
8Outlook for gas in the context of India's commitment to Paris targets
8Assumed projections for demand for gas in the fertilizer sector: three scenarios
8Assumed projection for gas demand by Indian industry: Gad demand in relation to manufacturing GDP
8Overall projections for gas demand from city gas, fertilizers and the industrial sectors
8Assumptions on achievements of renewable energy targets and is there a potential for gas to bridge the gap?
8The projected demand for gas under different delivered gas prices in relation to a scalable tax on carbon emission
8The relative influence of different demand drivers in India
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