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How Big Oil gets its projections wrong-III: ONGC and RIL need to look at the difficult scenarios
May 16: Big companies such as ONGC and RIL will have to think in multiple, significantly-different scenarios as they handle billions of dollars of investments in what are clearly uncertain times.
8What is needed to be looked at is what is plausible and internally consistent, rather than “likely”: they cannot assume the future will be like the present
These companies need to identify key underlying drivers, reflecting:
-- greatest uncertainties (eg technology, political action), and
-- greatest impacts on the business
-- If a scenario is not difficult for the company, it’s not a stress test
-- Challenge psychological biases; beware of groupthink
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