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BP's new projections show emissions won't go down in 20 years-III: Refinery capacity expansion will come to an end
Jan 30: BP assumes that the current spurt in refining building will come to an end sooner than later.
8Liquids supply increases by just 0.7 Mb/d per year over the Outlook, much slower than the 1.3 Mb/d per year growth seen over the past 20 years, reflecting the weaker outlook for demand.
8Strong gains in NGLs production (0.3 Mb/d p.a.) and continued growth in biofuels, mean global refinery runs increase by only 0.3 Mb/d per year.
8All of the growth in refined product demand stems from emerging economies, with the trend decline in OECD demand continuing. Historically, many countries and regions in the non-OECD, including China, India and the Middle East, have tended to build sufficient new refining capacity to meet (or exceed) their demand growth, rather than rely on imports. If that practice continues, this could lead to substantial refinery spare capacity and ultimately closures in mature markets such as Europe, OECD Asia and parts of North America.
8Indeed, announced start-ups and plans for new capacity between 2015 and 2020 already total around 8 Mb/d, which would be sufficient to meet the entire projected increase in refinery throughput over the next 20 years.
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