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Breakneck refinery expansions can get OMCs into trouble-I: Disruptive technology can disrupt calculations
Dec 16:   High refinery margins and surging demand has emboldened the public sector oil marketing companies to embark on a massive refinery expansion spree.
8Most refinery expansions are meant to take into account a demand profile stretching over a 20 year period.
8But have the planners taken cognizance of disruptive technologies which have the capacity to destroy the demand for fossil fuels?
8The advent of distributed solar power units has the menacing power of reducing the demand for diesel for generator sets
8The launch of the electric car will eventually eliminate the need for retail outlets in the manner we know it now.
8The outlook for electric vehicles by 2030 is very uncertain, but a range of scenarios show the potential for 30–40% new car sales in US, EU, and China and full coverage in the next 10 years.
8Driverless cars, smart grids, electric rather than fossil-fuel or gas driven appliances will also have a negative impact on fossil fuel demand.
8All this will begin to bite within the next 5 to 10 year horizon.
8It is imperative therefore that the oil marketing companies incorporate these developments into their financial and economic matrices before it it is too late.
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